GRIs Are Inevitable — Is Your Routing Guide Ready?

As early 2026 data has shown indicators of a higher market rate stabilization and even the potential for a market shift, carriers will likely begin looking more closely at volumes and overall market conditions to inform upcoming general rate increases (GRIs). For shippers that move large volumes of freight across multiple modes and lanes, GRIs can create significant impacts when it comes to pricing negotiations, overall shipping costs and service levels. While GRIs themselves refer only to base freight rates, they are influenced by market volatility and can be further compounded by fuel costs resulting from capacity shifts and overall market and demand trends.

Shippers are especially vulnerable to GRIs when they occur, and while they can’t be avoided altogether, steps can be taken to soften their impact on budgets while maintaining service levels.

Why GRIs Hit Shippers the Hardest

For the past several years, freight rates have worked in favor of shippers due to extensive capacity that has outpaced demand since the end of the COVID-era boom. As a result, shippers have had their pick of the litter when it comes to rates due to additional pricing power and leverage when negotiating with carriers. However, as early 2026 data from SONAR indicates, tender rejection rates (or the frequency with which carriers reject shippers’ loads) were the highest they’ve been in years this holiday season, reaching 13.2 percent. As the post-holiday market stabilizes, rejection rates have hovered at a higher (10.6 percent) rate than in previous years as well. With a 7-8-percent threshold generally being high enough to lead to elevated spot rates, shippers can expect to see rate increases and routing guide failures as a result of tightening capacity if these trends continue.

Shippers are particularly vulnerable to GRIs, in part because they often happen with little notice and, once implemented, shippers have limited ability to negotiate. As spot rates become elevated over contract rates, carriers often begin rejecting contracted loads in favor of more profitable ones, leaving shippers to secure backup capacity at higher rates. As a result, shippers with limited carrier pools have little leverage against these increases and will likely see service degradation if they opt for lower rates, which will likely impact customer satisfaction rates.

The Costs of a Limited Carrier Pool

While shippers often limit their carrier pools for simplicity, doing so can cost them dearly when GRIs take effect. A diverse pool of carriers can give shippers competitive leverage, negotiating power and flexibility to shift volumes to other carriers when rates rise, but having limited options leaves them with few alternatives if rates are enforced aggressively by their carrier partners. As capacity dwindles and rates increase, they are also vulnerable to capacity constraints and service failures, even for contracted freight.

When diversifying their carrier base, shippers should also ensure that all of their primary lanes and modes are accounted for, as GRIs are often unevenly applied and may have a more significant impact on high-volume lanes. Having more options can provide leverage when discussing rates while also allowing them to more accurately benchmark where rates should be by comparing multiple carriers.

Preparing for the Inevitable

The best way for shippers to safeguard against unexpected GRIs is to audit current routing guides to pinpoint areas of overreliance and insufficient coverage across primary lanes to position themselves to respond more effectively. Ensuring primary, secondary and tertiary carrier coverage for key lanes before it’s necessary can help to prevent loads from being dropped completely, and working with carriers and 3PL partners to pre-negotiate GRI terms within their contracts can provide some assurance that loads will be covered, even if rates increase. Monitoring real-time market intelligence around tender rejections and demand spikes can also help to identify early signals of potential rate hikes.

While GRIs are a normal part of the freight market cycle, it is critical to plan ahead and protect against changes in cost and service levels while ensuring routing guide integrity. At NXTPoint Logistics, our team helps shippers anticipate rate changes, model the cost impacts and create flexible capacity strategies that protect your bottom line before GRIs take effect. Our experts work with thoroughly vetted and trusted carriers to negotiate rates and contract terms, manage complexity, and maintain compliance and performance standards so that our partners can rest easy knowing that their freight will be covered on time, on budget and with the level of service their customers have come to expect.

GRIs don’t have to catch you off guard. Connect with our experts today to review your routing guide strategy and learn how we can help you build a smarter, more resilient supply chain.